MARKET VIEW 25 Aug 2010
The Relative Strength Argument
Understanding randomness is one of the more complicated tasks involved in applying a probability to any given event. In this article, our resident expert at Sports Investor takes a look at whether macro-level views, or an analysis of the relative strength of football teams is an important ingredient in evaluating the probability of any given outcome. Are results in football governed by on-the-day factors, or do the underlying fundamentals help in understanding results?
RECENT SELECTIONS 29-Aug-2010
Sunderland Vs Manchester City English Premier League
Selection Type: Asian Handicap
Selection: Manchester City(-0.50)
Offered at: 1.86 @ PINNACLE SPORTS
Stake: 0.80

 Team news

Sunderland: No Gordon, McCartney, Mensah, Onouha, Meyler

Manchester City: No Koralov, Bridge, Boateng; Balotelli doubtful

City's squad now boasts of a work rate that they didn't possess in previous seasons. Tevez up top, Millner, De Jong, Toure, Barry all guarantee you a shift. That should lead to a genuine re-rating, away from home.

The midfield trio of Toure, De Jong and Barry keep the game compact. Sunderland should find it difficult to get on top of City and turn this into a fixture played at the tempo they would prefer. City have the ability and the tactical opportunity to control the game, even at the Stadium of Light.

This will be a well-contested game, but overall quality makes City big favourites. City's passing statistics and ball retention early in the season have been outstanding. The lack of a history of success away from home leaves the market less decided on City away from home, but we should see them come into their own on their travels with the squad they now possess. 

Sunderland have a few very good players - Richardson, Cattermole, Turner and Bent are all quality footballers, but they aren't well-balanced and they don't look like a side that can beat the best teams, this season.

City will have important tactical options at their disposal: they could bring on players with real presence and there are a lot of individuals hoping to catch the manager's attention. Sunderland will work hard, but a bit more quality in key areas makes City favourites to pick up the points here.

Early in the season, with limited numbers backing up City's perceived improvement away from home, we'll go with small stakes on a City away win. 

Final Result: Lost
Outcome: Manchester City 1 - Sunderland 0
                        

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LATEST UPDATE
03 Sep 2010
Site Update

City created several chances, failed to take them and Sunderland punished them with a late goal. The quality to date hasn't been terrible, but we have been short of sharpness. That's not unusual at this stage of the season. A bit of a break in the calendar for international fixtures. Both leagues will start to offer us a lot more once we return to action on the 11th of September. We're working behind the scenes to roll out a few more features of the website.
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